Coercion quantified: the University of Waterloo's “Vaccination Requirement”
UW coerced 4050 people to avoid 4 covid cases.
About 45,000 people study or work at the University of Waterloo (UW). About 10% of people in Ontario, the Canadian province home to UW, are not “fully vaccinated” against covid-19. So a reasonable default expectation is that about 4,500 UW members wouldn’t be “fully vaccinated” (45,000 x .10 = 4,500).1
Other factors, such as age, sex or national origin, could affect our default expectation. And coercive measures adopted by the Ontario government likely mean that the provincial base rate is lower than it otherwise would be. But Ontario’s provincial base rate of 10% is a reasonable place to start.
According to UW, over 99% (paywalled) of its members are “fully vaccinated.” Assuming that’s true, and conservatively rounding down to an even 99%, approximately 450 UW members are not “fully vaccinated” (45,000 x .01 = 450).
Taking the difference between our default expectation of 4,500 and the observed 450, we get 4,050.
So, based on the above assumptions, 4050 is the best estimate of the number of UW students, staff and faculty coerced into being “fully vaccinated” by UW’s “vaccination requirement” specifically.
UW’s covid coercion quotient is 4,050.
UW’s own published data indicate that its “vaccination requirement” is associated with 1 fewer covid case every 2 months. The requirement will allegedly be “suspended” after 8 months in May. So, overall, the requirement will be associated with 4 fewer covid cases.
UW coerced 4,050 people to undergo unwanted medical treatment to avoid 4 covid cases. That is a coercion-to-case ratio of over 1,000 (to be precise, 1012.5).
And UW's president considers the requirement a “success” (paywalled). Don’t you wonder why?
The 99% confidence interval is 4,335 to 4,665.
Very informative and interesting stats.
The flip side of this: of the 4050 who were coerced into vaccination, how many of these individuals suffered mild/ moderate/ severe outcomes from the vaccine?